San Diego County’s unemployment rate hit its lowest since the pandemic began — 7.7 percent — in October.

However, the numbers are from before the region went back into the state’s restrictive COVID purple tier, which meant many businesses had to scale back workforces and possibly cut employees.

October marked five consecutive months of reduced jobless claims. In May, the unemployment rate reached 15.2 percent, its highest ever since record-keeping for the county began in 1990.

San Diego County in October had a higher jobless rate than the rest of the nation, which was at 6.6 percent, but lower than the California average of 9 percent.

Alan Gin, an economist at University of San Diego, said the unemployment rate likely ticked up after the county went into the purple tier in November, but it might not be a huge difference. He said when the county came out of the purple tier last time, into the less restrictive red tier, most businesses did not hire back full staffs — especially at hard hit tourism and restaurant businesses.

“I don’t think the impact will be that great,” Gin said. “There will be some job losses, but not a lot.”

California has typically had a higher unemployment rate than the rest of the nation throughout the pandemic, which experts say is the result of strict COVID guidelines. However, Gin said there may be a long-term economic benefit to the restrictions. He cited per capita data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which shows California with one of the lowest case rates — 45th out 60 (50 states and 10 territories) — in the nation for cases per 100,000 people.

Gin said it is possible the low rate could mean California’s economy can open up more quickly. California has a rate of 24.4 cases per 100,000, the CDC said. That compares to the hardest hit state, North Dakota, which has few restrictions compared to California and has a case rate of 176.9 per 100,000.

Between September and October, the biggest job gains were in high-paying professional and business services, up by 5,200 in a month. Jobs in the category include professional, scientific and technical services. Another big gainer, government, added 4,300 jobs that were mainly in education.

San Diego County in October had lost 106,500 jobs in a year. Last year, at the same time, the unemployment was near record lows at 3 percent. In October 2019, San Diego County added 30,200 jobs in a year.

No category over the last year has been hit harder than leisure and hospitality, losing 47,900 jobs annually. Just about every type of tourism job had been affected, from cleaners to hotel managers. Retail was also hit hard, losing around 17,100 jobs.

“White collar, construction, and many manufacturing workers are doing well,” said Phil Blair, executive officer of staffing agency Manpower West, “but people who used to work at the hotels, convention center, or some part of tourism are struggling to hang on.”

Lynn Reaser, chief economist for the Fermanian Business & Economic Institute at Point Loma Nazarene University, said the unemployment rate for October in San Diego was also 7.7 percent when adjusted for seasonal swings. That compares to an adjusted 9.3 percent California average and 6.9 percent nationwide.

She said the local economy will face difficult times ahead with its status in the purple tier, but that the news of vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna was promising.

“The impressive progress with vaccines does bode well for the region’s future if we can manage to hold on until next spring or summer,” she wrote.

An analysis of October’s jobless claims by Beacon Economics and UC Riverside’s business school said 44 percent of jobs lost in California during the pandemic have not been recovered. It said over the past year that Orange County had lost the most jobs in Southern California at 8.3 percent.

It was followed by Los Angeles metro, down 8.1 percent; Ventura County, down 7.9 percent; Inland Empire, down 7.1 percent; and San Diego, down 6.9 percent.

Source: SDuniontribune by Phillip Molnar